Use recent asking versus closing numbers to avoid paying for emotion
If you are trying to decide how aggressive to be on an offer, I would stay grounded in what sellers are actually getting, not just what they are asking. In Santa Barbara, CA, recent offers landed about 97.8% of asking over the previous 30 days, which is competitive but still leaves room for disciplined decisions.
That percentage matters because it tells you this is not a market where every deal closes at full price. Last month, the typical closed price was $1,850,000, while active homes carried a typical asking price of $3,475,000. I would read that as a cue to price each offer from comparable outcomes, not from the listing's opening ambition.
Pace still matters. A typical sale took 26 days over the previous 30 days, and supply stood at 3.36 months in Santa Barbara, CA. That combination says you should be ready to act on the right home, but it does not justify abandoning your standards or waiving logic in the name of urgency.
Set your walk-away number before the first counter comes back. Use recent closed prices to shape your opening position and your ceiling. Keep contingencies and timing aligned with the property's value instead of stretching just to stay in the conversation. If you are also preparing to sell, I would coordinate those deadlines now.
