If you are trying to avoid overpaying, the pace of recent sales matters more than wishful thinking.
If you are waiting for an easier opening to buy, I would not count on the market sending you a handwritten invitation. My rule of thumb is simple move when the numbers support a disciplined offer, not when you are hoping the room suddenly gets polite. In San Francisco, CA, recent supply was just 1.85 months, which tells me buyers still need to show up prepared.
The answer to the waiting game is this you can wait, but the market is not exactly lounging on a chaise with cucumber water. Over the previous 30 days in San Francisco, CA, homes sold at about 115% of asking, a typical sale took 32 days, and the typical sold price reached $1,600,000. That is not a setup that rewards hesitation for sport.
For buyers, the real risk is not simply paying more. It is drifting into the search without a firm ceiling, then getting emotionally attached while recent closings are still landing above asking. I would read these numbers as a cue to be selective, not frantic. The pace is fast enough to require readiness, but long enough at 32 days that you still have to think, compare, and stay allergic to desperation.
Set your maximum before you tour another home. Narrow your list to properties where the value case is clear, because recent offers landed around 115% of asking. Move quickly when the fit is right, but keep your inspection, price limit, and decision standards intact. In San Francisco, CA, discipline is the thing that saves you from writing a love letter to regret.
