Use recent asking and closing numbers to set a range that makes sense
If you are worried about setting your budget too high or too low, I would anchor it to what has actually been happening recently, not just what catches your eye online. In New Prague, MN, a typical estimated home value stood at $456,780 recently, but a typical closed sale was $319,900, so your real search range needs more context than one headline number.
This is where first-time buyers can get tripped up fast. Recent numbers in New Prague, MN show a typical estimated home value of $456,780, a typical active asking price of $488,450, and a typical closed sale of $319,900. Those figures are all real, but they are not interchangeable, and I would not build your budget off the highest one just because it sounds like the market standard.
A more useful read is to treat those numbers as different signals. The value estimate gives broad context. The current asking price tells you where active competition sits. The closed price tells you where deals were actually getting done over the previous 30 days. Add in the fact that recent offers closed around 94% of asking and a typical sale took 56 days, and I see room for a measured plan rather than a rushed one.
Start with the payment you can live with comfortably. Narrow your tours to homes that still make sense if you need minor repairs or closing costs. Then compare each option against recent closed prices before you write. In New Prague, MN, that is how I would keep your first purchase grounded and manageable.
