Focus on the levers the market is already rewarding
You are trying to decide how aggressive an offer needs to be to avoid missing the right home. In Holly Springs, NC, I keep it grounded in how close buyers have been getting to asking and how tight supply has been recently.
Looking at the latest numbers, the clearest signal was recent offers landed about 98% of asking last month while supply stood at 1.62 months. That matters because when supply is this limited, you usually do not win by hoping the seller negotiates down from a stretched price. At the same time, 98% of asking tells you the typical accepted deal was not automatically full price, so you still need to be disciplined about value instead of bidding blindly. Some metrics were not reported for this period, so I do not assume anything beyond what these two numbers already tell us. Write offers that match the home and the seller's reality start with a price that makes sense inside the 98% of asking pattern, then strengthen terms in ways you can actually perform. Build your decision sequence before touring so you can move quickly in Holly Springs, NC when a home fits. Keep your ceiling tied to the price level buyers have been sustaining, not to emotion in the moment.
